What Are You Stockpiling for Coronavirus?

[macliam]

Varadkar was asked about projections that the virus could impact 50-60% of the population, according to estimates based on what had been learned from other countries.

I've heard this 60% figure a couple of times this week. Where does it come from?

Currently, Italy is leading the field with 0.02% of the population infected.
But people are predicting up to 60%?

There are a lot of numbers being bandied about without explanation - which is one of the reasons I thought Varadkar's speech - and the extrapolation for UK figures - was worth seeing. The best visual representation I've seen of the state of play worldwide is HERE - and this too talks about a penetration of up to 60% of the population (although in this case a range of 40-60% as opposed to Leo's 50-60%).

I also found THIS which seems to suggest that 40-60% is not COVID-19 specific, but a rule-of-thumb for the infection rate in an uncontrolled pandemic. - and explains the scrabble to "contain" it.

[blythburgh]

OK we have better disease control in this country not to mention better drugs etc.

But in 1919 "Spanish Flu" killed more people than died in WW!.

So we are wise to be careful and our Govt. is wise to be prepared

[BeautifulSunshine]

OK we have better disease control in this country not to mention better drugs etc.

But in 1919 "Spanish Flu" killed more people than died in WW!.

So we are wise to be careful and our Govt. is wise to be prepared

As am I, AAAlphaThunder, to be prepared.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[macliam]

Reduction in the rate of infection is down to two factors - reduction in contact with the virus (hence no mass meetings) and reduction in infection by the virus (hence hand washing).

The impact of these two simple factors is stark - according to the epidemialogical models, an unchecked spread over 2 months would infect 100,000,000 people. Reducing contact and post-contact infection could cut this to 330,000 over the same period. This has 2 advantages - the latter figure is easier to treat and it buys us time to prove a vaccine and/or other treatment.

Yet I've seen people saying "most people will only get mildly sick" - which is true..... but they will still be vectors for transmission..... and I've no wish to be the cause of my neighbour's death. Perhaps a little less selfishness and a little more altruism. eh?

[BeautifulSunshine]

Reduction in the rate of infection is down to two factors - reduction in contact with the virus (hence no mass meetings) and reduction in infection by the virus (hence hand washing).

The impact of these two simple factors is stark - according to the epidemialogical models, an unchecked spread over 2 months would infect 100,000,000 people. Reducing contact and post-contact infection could cut this to 330,000 over the same period. This has 2 advantages - the latter figure is easier to treat and it buys us time to prove a vaccine and/or other treatment.

Yet I've seen people saying "most people will only get mildly sick" - which is true..... but they will still be vectors for transmission..... and I've no wish to be the cause of my neighbour's death. Perhaps a little less selfishness and a little more altruism. eh?

Altruism - yes that's me.

[Boro Boy]

I started stockpiling the other day... I went into Boots and I asked the representative for help "Miss, I wonder if you can help me?" Having got her attention I continued "I was wondering what you have got for Corona Virus!?!" She replied "Ammonia Cleaner", "Oh!" I said "Sorry I thought you were a member of staff!"

[Richard Frost]

I started stockpiling the other day... I went into Boots and I asked the representative for help "Miss, I wonder if you can help me?" Having got her attention I continued "I was wondering what you have got for Corona Virus!?!" She replied "Ammonia Cleaner", "Oh!" I said "Sorry I thought you were a member of staff!"

Duplicate viewtopic.php?f=19&t=88000&start=160

[Boro Boy]

I started stockpiling the other day... I went into Boots and I asked the representative for help "Miss, I wonder if you can help me?" Having got her attention I continued "I was wondering what you have got for Corona Virus!?!" She replied "Ammonia Cleaner", "Oh!" I said "Sorry I thought you were a member of staff!"

Duplicate viewtopic.php?f=19&t=88000&start=160

Must be good enough to do the rounds and be told twice!

[kevinchess1]

FFS have IQs dropped because of Brexit?
As I post this , you cvan count the people who have died in this country from Corana on the fingers of one hand, if you're from Norfolk.
All of those, except one, had underlying health issues, and it's not even clear that the Virus killed them,
A bit like describing someones death from a pub fire as a 'Drinking problem.'
The only person death that was Definetly cause by the virus was Jack Wigan, He had he face mask pull up to far and did see the bus that knocked him over

Lets start wirtth a few basics, note I don't have any medical training, like EVERYONE else on this thread but I do have a First aid certificate and a Cubs badge for tying a tourniquet I have also been shown how to make a Tracheostomy using a pen top

1. IT'S a respiratoral VIRUS" You won't avoid getting it by washiung your hands. If you get it. you won't be incapable of passing it because you wash your hands
It wont give you the runs so why panic buy toilet paper?
What the good in closing school? children aren't dying from it. and whose going to look afte the children when they're off? Their parents, doctor, nurse toilet roll makers
How that going to help?
Stop panic buying, You should wash your hansds anyway and alsway and GET A f GRIP

[macliam]

FFS have IQs dropped because of Brexit?
As I post this , you cvan count the people who have died in this country from Corana on the fingers of one hand, if you're from Norfolk.
All of those, except one, had underlying health issues, and it's not even clear that the Virus killed them,
A bit like describing someones death from a pub fire as a 'Drinking problem.'
The only person death that was Definetly cause by the virus was Jack Wigan, He had he face mask pull up to far and did see the bus that knocked him over

Lets start wirtth a few basics, note I don't have any medical training, like EVERYONE else on this thread but I do have a First aid certificate and a Cubs badge for tying a tourniquet I have also been shown how to make a Tracheostomy using a pen top

1. IT'S a respiratoral VIRUS" You won't avoid getting it by washiung your hands. If you get it. you won't be incapable of passing it because you wash your hands
It wont give you the runs so why panic buy toilet paper?
What the good in closing school? children aren't dying from it. and whose going to look afte the children when they're off? Their parents, doctor, nurse toilet roll makers
How that going to help?
Stop panic buying, You should wash your hansds anyway and alsway and GET A f GRIP

Sorry kev, it's not a respiratoral VIRUS- your "advice" is incorrect.

It's spread by airborne liquid - and the quickest method of infection is actually through the eyes and soft tissue - hence the "wash your hands" and "Don't touch you face" advice. Also, this is why facemasks alone are next to useless to avoid infection, but a really good idea for anyone who already has the virus.

The reason for closing schools and public gatherings is to SLOW, not stop, infection - this is because epidemiological statistical models show an unchecked epidemic would mean infection of 100,000,000 in two months, as opposed to 333,000 if we do our best to avoid contact with infection and/or avoid self-infection via basic hygiene. This is important because huge numbers will overwhelm facilities, leading to an increased mortality rate - but also, if we delay the increase, it allows more time to roll out counter measures.

I do however agree that we should not panic and get a grip

(No "medical" qualifications either, but BSc Psych, with physiology & biochemistry and stats.)