What Are You Stockpiling for Coronavirus?

[macliam]

Bloke in front of me had four trays of baked beans in his trolley....

Life must be a gas!

[Boro Boy]

One of the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures attempted to explain & demonstrate herd immunity at a level that children (or maybe even the Johnson government) could understand at the end of last year. It can be seen here on youtube - skip to 22 mins if you don't want to watch the whole episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q4DrUHKC0Q

More people should view this simplistic, straight forward explanation above of Herd Immunity - it doesn't really explain the cost of getting to the "sweet spot" of 60% immune "herd"

• 60% of 66 Million approx. UK population = 44 Million
  Current death rate varies country to country from 1% of those infected to 2.5%
  Worst scenario of 2.5% of UK population infected 44 Million = 1 Million Deaths...!!!!
  Best case scenario of 1% = 400,000 deaths

• The crazy thing is 50% of the people catching the virus will only be effected with a mild cold symptoms of not even realise they have the virus and just become a carrier (the people to avoid) the remaining 50% will suffer serious or critical symptoms.

Either way phenomenal figures and all the more justification for restrictions! Flattening the growth curve to ensure people are not turned away from hospital (meaning doctors have to make life/death decisions) is a necessity - again pointing to the necessity for isolation and slowing the spread.

A relative isolating in Milan tells me that she has to have a licence to walk her dog and if stopped she could be arrested for not carrying it - amazing restrictive practices (to protect the majority and slowing spread) occurring in Italy and the experts say we are three and a half weeks behind the position Italy is in presently...

Interesting times.

[BeautifulSunshine]

The BBC are reporting that the government is advising against stockpiling. If you go to my local Asda you'll see that the government doesn't need to give such advice as the shelves are almost empty!

So who are these people doing the stockpiling?

[kevinchess1]

People who stock pile toilet paper are full of siht

[kevinchess1]

• 60% of 66 Million approx. UK population = 44 Million
  Current death rate varies country to country from 1% of those infected to 2.5%
  Worst scenario of 2.5% of UK population infected 44 Million = 1 Million Deaths...!!!!
  Best case scenario of 1% = 400,000 deaths

It unlikely to be that many it's only really fatal to some pensioners
12 million at 60% = 7,200,000
1%=72,000
If the government bring in their 'Isolating over 70's policy it probably won't reach 5 figures

[macliam]

• 60% of 66 Million approx. UK population = 44 Million
  Current death rate varies country to country from 1% of those infected to 2.5%
  Worst scenario of 2.5% of UK population infected 44 Million = 1 Million Deaths...!!!!
  Best case scenario of 1% = 400,000 deaths

It unlikely to be that many it's only really fatal to some pensioners
12 million at 60% = 7,200,000
1%=72,000
If the government bring in their 'Isolating over 70's policy it probably won't reach 5 figures

I gave the predictons earlier, based on the Irish scenario, and comments re herd immunity, so there should be no surprises here - even after widespread exposure, we don't even know if you will be protected once you've had it! The variables are a terminal infection of 40-60% of the population and a mortality rate of 1-3.4% - and currently, mortality rates are higher, not lower.

The only way to combat a virus which has no vaccine is to reduce possible exposure to the virus (social distancing) and reduce the likelyhood of infection after exposure (hand washing, etc.) in order to "wait" for a milder strain of the virus to develop and/or for a vaccine.

But I really LOVE the use of "probably" about a virus which we know sod all about!

[Chadwick]

• 60% of 66 Million approx. UK population = 44 Million
  Current death rate varies country to country from 1% of those infected to 2.5%
  Worst scenario of 2.5% of UK population infected 44 Million = 1 Million Deaths...!!!!
  Best case scenario of 1% = 400,000 deaths

It unlikely to be that many it's only really fatal to some pensioners
12 million at 60% = 7,200,000
1%=72,000
If the government bring in their 'Isolating over 70's policy it probably won't reach 5 figures

No, Boro Boy's right. (Bet you never thought I'd say that! Interesting times indeed!)
The overall mortality rate across the entire population is around 3.4% (WHO, 3rd March). For the under 50s it is well under 0.5%. But for over 70s, it is much higher - between 8% and 14%

8% of 12 million = 960,000 deaths

[Chadwick]

Why are the overpriced handwashes/hand sanistisers sold out? Surely soap, washing up liquid, shower gel etc has the same effect?

Soap is fine when you have access to water to wash your hands.
A lot of buses, banks, shops and other public spaces do not have washing facilities - the hand gel is useful there.

[kevinchess1]

Breaking News: Russian footballer Ivor Chestikov has tested possible for Covid-19
f

[kevinchess1]

(Richard is watching the telly, with a bag of Doritos's on his chest and a mug of beer on the coaster)

Sue: Why aren't you working?

Richard: I'm self-quarantining. Can't be too careful now.

Sue: But You work from home.....