Coronavirus/COVID-19

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Boro Boy
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Boro Boy » Mon Apr 27 2020 2:21am

That certainly sounds terrible and should be a lesson to all those people I had to move away from earlier today who find it hard to understand what Social Distancing actually means (and practicing it!)...
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by blythburgh » Mon Apr 27 2020 8:33am

We get told daily how many people have died in hospital from the virus. I would like to know how many people have gone into hospital with the virus each day. It takes a while for a person to go into hospital to sadly dying.

So an increase or a decrease in the number of people admitted to hospital would surely be a better indication of how well we are or are not doing in beating the virus by things like washing hands, social distancing and self isolating.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Richard Frost » Mon Apr 27 2020 9:16am

blythburgh wrote:
Mon Apr 27 2020 8:33am
We get told daily how many people have died in hospital from the virus. I would like to know how many people have gone into hospital with the virus each day. It takes a while for a person to go into hospital to sadly dying.

So an increase or a decrease in the number of people admitted to hospital would surely be a better indication of how well we are or are not doing in beating the virus by things like washing hands, social distancing and self isolating.
I thought (but could be wrong) that that information was available daily.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by macliam » Mon Apr 27 2020 10:00am

Richard Frost wrote:
Mon Apr 27 2020 9:16am
blythburgh wrote:
Mon Apr 27 2020 8:33am
We get told daily how many people have died in hospital from the virus. I would like to know how many people have gone into hospital with the virus each day. It takes a while for a person to go into hospital to sadly dying.

So an increase or a decrease in the number of people admitted to hospital would surely be a better indication of how well we are or are not doing in beating the virus by things like washing hands, social distancing and self isolating.
I thought (but could be wrong) that that information was available daily.
The information is available - the daily figures for new infections relate to those admitted to hospital and testing positive. They are not necessarily 100% accurate due to reporting cutoffs and bottlenecks at weekends, etc., but overall they are the best measure we can get. The issue is that this figure does not reflect new infections in the community.... because we simply don't know, some figures are ignored and some are just not available due to lack of testing. Likewise the "death" figures are subtly different. The daily figures are for those dying of hospital having contracted the virus - but it is the weekly figure relating to death certificates that says whether the death was primarily caused by the virus, as opposed to other causes.

As my friend's case exemplifies, viral infection is far from straightforward. Some people die within days of testing positive, some due to pre-existing conditions, others not. Some, like my friend, fight the initial infection.... but are damaged by it. I have read that the damage that can be caused to the lungs in some survivors is extensive and may be life-changing - others appear to walk away. Like everything else about this virus, there is more we don't know than we do (remember my initial comment that we know sod all?). Medics say they are learning more by the day, in terms of treating victims... and, no doubt, researchers are learning more by the day about the virus itself... but there are different levels of "knowledge" and different ways to use it. The medics are, basically, throwing everything they can at the infection and its symptoms.... and for the lucky few it works, for others it doesn't. This is down to individual variation in response to the treatment, not the efficacy of the treatment itself.

It's a bit like a vaccine - would you be hapy to accept a vaccine that may kill or damage 5% of recipients, but prevent infection by COVID-19? What about 10% or 20%, etc? What about a vaccine that only damages or kills 0.5%, but also only gives immunity to 60%......? This is the issue with jumping at every possible advance and the reason it will take so long to prove any effective vaccine. All of that is also supposing that total immunity to the virus is a possibility.... as yet unproven.

We are in this for the longterm.... we need to work out the best way to live with it.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by expressman33 » Mon Apr 27 2020 4:04pm

I can't understand why the "active cases" is still increasing at such a high rate https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Should those contracting the virus 3 weeks ago now be testing negative ?
Last edited by expressman33 on Mon Apr 27 2020 4:14pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Mon Apr 27 2020 4:09pm

Now you guys and girls have been given the chance to ask a question at the government's daily virus update from Downing Street. There will be one question a day from a member of the public, in addition to the media.

https://www.gov.uk/ask
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Chadwick » Mon Apr 27 2020 7:00pm

expressman33 wrote:
Mon Apr 27 2020 4:04pm
I can't understand why the "active cases" is still increasing at such a high rate https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Should those contracting the virus 3 weeks ago now be testing negative ?
The number of deaths per day appears to be on a slightly downward trajectory.
But the number of new cases remains static.
That would create more live cases.

However, we're missing the number of cases that end in recovery. From the available data summarised above, I infer that is also staying stable, or possibly reducing. But that's just extrapolating from incomplete data, so could be totally wrong.

It looks like we're getting better at stopping high risk people catching - and dying from - it.

The number of new cases would be accelerating exponentially (now we all now that word!) if we'd done nothing. The fact that they appear to be stable suggests the lockdown has stopped that acceleration.
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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by Boro Boy » Mon Apr 27 2020 8:29pm


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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by kevinchess1 » Mon Apr 27 2020 11:31pm

'This is moment of maximum risk' says Boris...as he comes back to work :?
Politically incorrect since 69

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Re: Coronavirus/COVID-19

Post by BeautifulSunshine » Tue Apr 28 2020 12:14am

kevinchess1 wrote:
Mon Apr 27 2020 11:31pm
'This is moment of maximum risk' says Boris...as he comes back to work :?
We are about to find out...
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